Hands-free religion

On the way to office today, I saw a sight that struck me a representative of the Indian approach to religion – Guy on a bike, left both the handlebars while in motion to fold his hands in front of a temple. Nothing more to say. Forget civic sense, we first need some kind of sense.

TV needs to die

I have oscillated between having a cable connection and disconnecting it all over last year. My primary objection to TV, besides the fact that most of the show are crap, is that there is no control over the experience. Fine – so you can record shows on DVRs , external or built-in, but I’m still being fed a stream of data that I don’t care about; And that rankles at a fundamental level.

TV in the form of force-fed signals and channel packages has served its purpose (zombifying entire generations) and there is no future for it. Last week my Tata Sky connection lapsed and I’ve taken the approx 400/ month and redirected it into more internet bandwidth. To make full use of this, Apple TV is going to be essential. Its going to allow me to stream stuff off my laptop / iPad onto the TV Screen.

And that is what it will boil down to. My TV is simply a monitor for media streams that I source independently. I wish the Xbox could do this better, as it already sits there like a big lump, but Windows Media Centre is quite honestly a piece of crap.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/09/think-small/

Pak on the couch

Dr: So, Lets begin with your childhood..

Pakistan: I had a great childhood. Jinnah was the bestest daddy in the world – no matter what the other kids said.

Dr: um… what did the other kids say ?

Pakistan: They are all liars. they said that my daddy was not really my daddy. and he used to drink and eat pork.. liars liars

Dr: ok ok .. lets move on. can you tell me a little bit about your brothers

Pakistan: I had a little brother who stayed across the big bully’s house. my little brother was just like me, except smaller and a little retarded.

Dr: so you were very close then.

Pakistan : oh yes. We used to play all the time. Sometimes I had to beat my little brother so that he knew that I was the bigger and better brother. Also little brother spoke in dirty language and was not pure.

Dr: When was the last time you spoke to your little brother ?

Pakistan: he turned out to be a real bastard. He and the bully beat me up and threw me out of his house. I still visit sometimes in the night to kick his puppies a little bit.

Dr: Don’t you think that maybe you were wrong ?

Pakistan: he is my little brother. I always wanted good for him. That’s why I used to beat him. Its all that bully’s fault. All his fault. I will kill the bully .. kill kill kill kill

Dr: all right, all right .. calm down. you must have made other friends while growing up ?

Pakistan: I had lots good friend’s when growing up.. There was this big white kid from far would would give me so many toys. and there was this little yellow guy always nice to me. We would all get together and beat up the bully

Dr: So you hated the bully, did you ?

Pakistan: hate, hate, hate. I spent many nights thinking of ways I could hate the bully. I wanted to rip it apart and and and.. kill kill kill

Dr: ooooook.. moving on.. so what happened yesterday ?

Pakistan: The bully – he came to my house and beat up my guests.

Dr: are you sure that’s what happened? Do you feel bad when no one looks at you ?

Pakistan: No one ever looks at me when I do good. they all look at me only when I am bad.

Dr: Have you ever been bad so that people will look at you ?

Pakistan: ………

Dr: think hard..

Pakistan: I like being bad. People are scared of me. They talk about me.. Sometimes they even give me candy so i wont be bad.

Dr: And how does that make you feel ?

Pakistan: The candy makes me excited. I run around and I run around and then I crash…. and then the bully takes my candy away… kill bully .. kill .. kill kill

Dr: have you ever taken medication for your rage ?

Pakistan: Medication is for sissies – I want more candy .. more candy … argh.. I kill you

Dr: Have you ever considered lobotomy ?

Pakistan: I kill you.. I kill all of you. bad man.. bad bully. candy.. toys.. I kill you. My daddy bestest! I kill you

close encounter of the WTF kind

If you are in Hyderabad, do not miss the latest giant poster of Chiru dada (Chiranjeevi – Tollywood sooper star – also known as the man straddling all top 10 positions in Telugu cinema) next to KBR park. Chiru side – by – side with …. hold on to your assorted beanies…. OBAMA ! and the slogan ? – Change ! Both of them – same stature – same pose with right hand upheld demanding change. Except Chiru want to literally change AP into Telangana.

Rumour has it that there is another one of Chiru sharing canvas with Gautum Buddha, Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther king and managing to hold his own… hmm..  Chiru Chiru Chiru  !

And before anyone else molests the cliche – The Indian Election Circus has truly begun.

On a completely different WTF, someone else brought to my attention Kalyan Singh, Mulayam Singh and congress may be allying. all the viewpoints involved in the Babri masjid.  No matter how you trade these horses  – their manure always raises a fresh stink.

Woody discovered and revered

Woody Allen – The short funny and intelligent man obsessed with sex. Always struck me as a pretentious prig who could be grudgingly admired for a few of his films – a nod here and there for his audacity, if nothing else, at choice of subject matter and interpretation. Until.. until – I wrapped my hands around his writing. Clean bowled !

Woody Allen’s Complete Prose is an unambiguous work of a genius – proud, daring and completely irreverent. Here is the title of one of many brilliant pieces – “If the Impressionists had been dentists”, where Vincent (of the Gogh fame) is a Dentist writing a series of emotional letters to Theo ( a direct reference to Vincent’s younger art dealing brother). I cannot do it justice without an extract –

” Dear Theo,

Once again I am in need of funds. I know what a burden I must be to you, but who can I turn to ? I need money for materials! I am working almost exclusively with dental floss now, improvising as I go along, and the results are exciting! God ! I have not even a penny left and had to anesthetize the patient by reading him some Drieser. Help. ”

Absolute must for your loo library. Warning: Consume in small doses – the brain OD’s on sarcasm and wit after a couple of pieces.

Mumbai terror – diplomatic dance of death

In an earlier post – I had expressed surprise over Zardari’s offers of “full cooperation” and “unqualified condemnation” of the attacks. This was a pointer that the govt. knew in advance of the attacks and had managed to corral support for its policy change.

Govt of Pakistan since then has had to revoke its decision to send the ISI top man to India from pressure from the military. The military has also started making its own statements on interpreting the events in Mumbai and more disturbingly even begun to take a political stance on the issue.

This seems to indicate that the military can smell power again. Pakistan’s military has historically asserted power over the nation by keeping the threat of India alive by a series of provocations and counter-provocations. They have of course been “justified” by the 3 wars between India and Pakistan.

But back to the present –

The Congress Govt in India is simply reeling under public pressure and reacting to the ebb and flow of public sentiment. This is not good. The rage in India needs to be channeled well and not allowed result in hasty tactics. Unfortunately this is too much to expect from a ideologically bereft political party. They have to be spurred into action by the only “danda” they understand or even care about – that of vote counts. Tracts of Hindu India have been radicalized by the events of the last few days and the next general elections might bring the misguided BJP into power. There is a serious risk of the BJP confusing this vote as a vote for its recent activities rather than a vote against Congress and its blatant vote mongering.

On the diplomatic front is where it gets extremely interesting with Pakistan’s threat of troop diversion to Indian front and a let up on the war in Fata etc. Pakistani diplomatic machine has gone into over-gear with messaging that is part threatening and part conciliatory. They have managed to rope Air Chief Marshal Jock Stirrup to echo their diplomatic line. This the probably the result of frenetic deal cutting amongst the diplomatic / military circles. The Pakistani bureaucracy is the intersection of the military and political powers of Pakistan with no clear allegiance to either. But its a very clever and resourceful team that has been saving Pakistan’s existence over and over in its pitted existence.

The recently if not declawed, then certainly rebuked, military institution in Pakistan is feeling the waters at this point. Offer of conditional support from Jamaat-e-Islami is certainly something the military will mull over. Islamic radicals in Pakistan are dependent upon one or more of these power bases. They cannot be effective on their own without logistical and strategic support.

The ISI at this point is not a player.

In the din and clamor of opinions we cannot forget those of the Pakistani people. None of the powers in Pakistan – Military, Govt, radicals and ISI – can claim to fullly represent the will of the people, but each represents the make up of every individual. Its like a retarded 10 year old with a machine gun and serious attention cravings. You want to pity it but its still extremely dangerous.

US role in the next few weeks will determine the course of events. Upto now the US stance both from the current and the incoming governments has been clear and and unequivocal. This is reflection of the great work done by the Indian diplomats in the US. Kudos to them.

If India and Pakistan don’t go to war (and I don’t believe they will), the likely scenarios are

- Pakistan “assists” in the recovery of wanted terrorists like Daewood and Masood Azhar. The only way Pakistan can give these guys up is in a haze of smoke and mirrors – maybe by having them captured in the tribal areas by UN troops.

- Joint military operations in Pakistani territory by US, India and Pakistan. This will be a very contentious issue for Pakistan but it is the only middle ground that is acceptable to the Indian people.

If the world (read: US) can manage to broker such a scenario, double the effort will have to be made to rein in the Pakistan military and cut down its power centers that are not aligned to the elected government.

ISI is a long term correction that will have to be based on policy shifts in Pakistan. It will remain key in solving and affixing the blame on Pakistan but is not involved in the immediate power plays. Which is the key to its survival. Somehow, amongst all solutions and plan has to be evolved to the future direction and eventual disbandment of ISI in its current form.

The problem even with the most reasonable response tactics by the congress government is that it will force the BJP and its more extremist allies into full blown anti-Muslim mode. BJP will play the terror card to the hilt in the upcoming relations. The outlet of steam has to be carefully measured as there is a serious threat of it exploding in the form of communal violence in a couple of years.

stale stale-mate

Watch Zardari do the classic Pakistani dodge and feint on Larry King Live tonight. These guys are unbelievable – Zardari says: “We have not been given any tangible proof to say that he is definitely a Pakistani. I very much doubt it, Larry, that he is a Pakistani.”.

Its a learning experience to note the different messages beamed out from Pakistan depending on audience. This is how they typically weasel out of every situation. An air spot like this will definitely make a dent in US public opinion. This is being coupled with some deft touches of black mail and promises of cooperation. Classic carrot and stick with the huge nuclear elephant in the room.

I think we sometimes forget the role that the Pakistani diplomats play very cleverly everytime there is a crisis. Its nothing short of brilliant how they extricate Pakistan out of tight spots usually with a couple of billion in funding for their “army” to fight “militants” as an added bonus ! Simply Wow…

Where do they manage to get such good people in the top spots from ? They seem to have a very effective foreign strategy and propaganda machine despite all the bad publicity. Its probably the only country that receives military aid from both America and China at the same time; It gets enlisted as an “ally” in the war against terror – Its like magic. I just don’t understand it.

On the other hand the Indian diplomatic wonderkids (cream of IAS) are doing the usual unimaginative ranting and tantrum throwing that I think people have become bored of. Look ma’am  – Pakistan just did this, just did that – wont you make it sit in a corner. Literally school boy stuff.

Indians are being outwitted in a mind game.

A simple question to Zardari can trap him – Does he still stand firm on his commitment of no first-use made just last week? 

Say yes – and the Pakistani public and military will crucify him. Say no – and the double face of Pakistan will be exposed. Either way – he will need to make a choice.

Remember

 

What next ?

I was in the middle of composing my last post on Pakistan’s highly suspicious overtures of peace towards India all of last week by PM Zardari, when the Mumbai terror attacks began. Maybe I’ve learnt to mistrust and eye every statement from the other side with a unhealthy degree of skeptism

All doubts of Pakistani establishment fore-knowledge were removed by the speed of Pakistani Foreign Minister’s statements –

a) Full Condemnation of the attacks : Pakistan has historically qualified its condemnation (if even that) with references to the JK issue and the usual “expression of aspiration of freedom for J&K”, “Freedom Fighters” etc etc. This time the condemnation was swift and unequivocal

b) The Pakistan government has offered “Full cooperation” and “ISI hotline with RAW at the highest level” – This is unprecedented.

On the surface both these statements would be a very solid expression of support and empathy. In fact these are not statements or the usual expression of condolence – these are radical policy changes from the official Pakistani stand since its formation.

Such radical policy shifts cannot be approved and published within 6 hours of the attack as it transpired yesterday. It just is not possible for any Pakistani Leader, least of Zardari who has been heading a very shaky parliament for less than a year, to bring about cohesion amongst the various internal forces that form the mess of Pakistan’s leadership.

I don’t believe that the civilian leadership had any involvement in the planning of these attacks or they were in fact even in support of these. However, ISI and parts of the military did play a crucial role in terms of intelligence, logistical and communications support to the terrorists, not only during the planning phase but also leading up to the execution of the attacks. There are several pointers towards this most striking of which are -

1. Typical terrorist training camps are geared towards quick and high casualty bomb suicide attacks. The terrorists are inculcated with a deep sense of direction and aimed and fired much like missiles if you will. This attack was not a suicide attack. It was a precise military initiative which requires a complete different set of training and mind set. The terrorists obviously had multiple back up plans to handle such fluid situation with a theatre of operation spread right across the entire South Bombay peninsula.

2. Terrorist training camps are not re-knowned for their navy training. Even though only the last part of the infiltration was via inflatables with outboard motors - it would have taken a high degree of skill to navigate the harbour in the dark with no lights. It would also have taken accurate and up to date information on the coast guard movements. An operation of this scale would not have been dependant upon lucking out with the coast guard. Monitoring of the Indian coast in real-time would require the level of infrastructure available only to government and military.

Here’s a couple of scenarios - The current government of Pakistan realizes that unless something is done about their economy, the return on investment of managing the hell hole of Pakistan is negligible. Mr. Zardari did the math and calculated that 5% of nothing is still nothing. So trade and economy must be promoted. That requires peace and stability. Hence the disbandment of the political wing of the ISI. This is no mean task and much appeasement is required, for the political landscape in Pakistan (as in every other Asian nation) is heavily buttressed by a system of favors and counter-favors. Everyone is intricately linked. The government would have been aghast on discovering the plans of this terror attack as it would bring about repercussions (despite India’s track record of ineffectual reprisals) – just due to the sheer audacity. The terrorists would not be able to erase the thread back to Pakistan. The timing of the discovery of the attack plans and the disbandment of the ISI wing and the cause-effect relationship between them is hazy in my mind right now. My conjecture is that the disbandment was already in the works and in the process the plan was uncovered. The Pakistani government now had to move fast as ISI would not trust the leaky establishment to keep it under wraps for too long. Maybe a week ago. This precipitated the barrage of policy changes by Zardari last week and the Querishi’s visit to India. It is likely that the Zardari’s people did not have insight into the exact date of the attack.

The Pakistani military wins either ways – Any strong retaliation by India in the form of strikes within Pakistani borders would allow them to go to the public and demonstrate the necessity of a more powerful military presence in government and policy formation of the country. And army basks in the reflected glory of the attacks with everyone in the know understanding with a nod and a wink its involvement and support.

So – what’s next ?

I cannot bring myself to conjecture the reaction the this congress government in India. They are only motivated by the principle of hanging on to power. They would have realized that this incident is going to boost he Hindu right wing and nationalist parties the line between which is unfortunately blurry in the current political arena. Retaliation will be necessary. Once the proof for extent of Pakistani establishment involvement is collected, they will probably use underground channels to supply the meat of this to the Americans. There will be have to be some overt public demonstration of will in the run up to the elections.

Pakistan will try to cut-off drastic action by mostly a lot of talk and policy changes – which count for nothing since the life-expectancy of a democratic govt in pakistan’s is under a year. They do not have any concept of consistent foreign policy except the principles of anti-India and slavering over any one who’ll throw money in their national begging bowl.

The most face-saving action possible for Pakistan in the short term is going to be extradition of key perpetrators of the ’93 Mumbai blasts and later. Pakistani populace is still not ready to digest Indian operations on Pakistani soil. American operations are already hurting the national pride hard and sustaining support for the hard-liners in their military and Islamic right. Indian strikes would, if not end the fledgling democratic rule, at least push it into the hands of the Islamic right. This is not a desirable situation for anyone.

India must move on two fronts. The first and short term direct retaliation. This has to be in the form of strikes within Pakistan territory. India has enough prior evidence to quickly turn it into a directed action. It also has to deal with the terrorists already captured and mete out swift punishment in the form of death penalty. The display of political unity while implementing these actions will be as significant as the action itself. It should send a clear message that there will be an unequal and overwhelming reaction for any terrorist activity in India and any nation state or territory involved in supporting the terrorists will suffer as a result of association. The national psyche must be patched immediately or else there is risk of complete despair and independent action,

The second front of attack is on internal security. This is never a straight forward action as the balance between human rights vs internal security is a difficult one to master. This issue has been politicized way too long and the only recourse is for independent agencies at a central level armed with tougher laws to deal with the realities of Indian society. We cannot afford to be distracted by the collateral damage some of the tougher laws will entail. It requires a special state of emergency in India to allow the agencies to function. Indian society has to learn that it is not only direct action that is punished but also inaction to report and assist these agencies have a collective price to be paid. All of India has to invest in the future of the nation and reap the rewards and suffer the losses. We cannot continue to allow any other primary identity than that of being Indian.

Pakistan’s last orgasmic sigh ?

- zardari says he doesnt want to nuke india first

- ISI disbands its political wing

- Pakistani foreign minister to visit India on Wed

- Pakistan to release ”ek sau ek” POWs

whaddup, pakistan ?